Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica’s College Football Week 10 Expert Picks, Best Bets

We went 3-1 last weekend, and now we’re well above .500. Can you ask for much more this season? Here’s how I’m wagering on Week 10, along with my Bear Bytes. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. Last Week: 3-1Season: 24-18 The prospect of this Clemson offense laying points on the road isn’t one I can wrap my hands around. The Orange are a completely different offense with Steve Angeli at QB and Calvin Russell at WR. The Orange have pulled consecutive upsets and I like their chances for a third straight. Playing the spot here, after UNC gave No. 1 Miami all it could handle last week and is laying a TD on the road in East Hartford, CT. UConn lost a game last week at Air Force in which it took all the betting action. The weather should be gloomy and potentially rainy, and I expect the Huskies to show up against the former HC of the Patriots. It’s really impossible to think Nebraska has lost three straight games and trailed for less than nine minutes. The Huskers’ defense has been very good in Big Ten play and now gets an Illinois team off a win at Maryland on a last-minute field goal, a win over an injury and suspension-riddled Oregon, and a one-point win over Michigan State. Two of those three haven’t won a conference game. This feels like an opportunity for Nebraska to snap that losing streak. Texas is beat up … bad. Missouri has a chance — if it can win two of its next three against Texas, Georgia and Kentucky — to get to 9-3 and put itself in the Playoff discussion. Austin Simmons is having a very underrated season and might enjoy showing out against the Longhorns and their high-profile QB. Last week was the first time that Texas didn’t play in a one-possession game vs. a Power 4 opponent, so I can’t see it winning by margin, if Texas wins at all. Last Week: 0-4, -4Season: 10-17, -1.79 Syracuse +115Connecticut +220Missouri +120Miami +230 A top-two team has lost for four straight weeks. The only longer streak came in 2007 (because of course) at five straight weeks. Six AP top-10 teams are on the road vs. ranked teams, the most in poll history. For the first time since 1973, AP No. 1-2-3-4 each play a top-12 opponent in the regular season. What else could happen come Saturday night? Utah could be No. 1, UCLA could be the lone undefeated team or there could be zero undefeated teams. Texas or Missouri will pick up a third loss, as will Alabama or LSU. Oregon will pick up its fourth loss or Ohio State will pick up a third. Neither are in the top 10. Not exactly what we thought at the start of the year. In the last two weeks, we’ve seen nine of 15 AP ranked teams go down on the road vs. unranked opponents. This week’s candidates are No. 8 UCLA at Minnesota, No. 25 Boise State at Colorado State, No. 19 Iowa at Northwestern and (AP) No. 22 New Mexico at Nevada. There are 10 P4 teams that have had 18 or fewer 20-yard plays vs. P4 opponents this year. Eight are from the Big Ten (NEB, MARY, MIN, IOWA, MICH, PSU, WISC, MSU). Texas A&M and Vandy are the other two. Lower Division alert: Ferris State looks to equal a D2 record with its 40th straight win at Wayne State. In D3, No. 2 Wisconsin-Plattville hosts No. 4 Wisconsin-Whitewater. FLORIDA ST. @ BOSTON COLLEGE FSU has lost 12 straight road games dating back to a win at Florida on Nov. 15, 2023. The Noles are a TD favorite at BC this week after firing Mike Norvell and losing their best player, WR Duce Robinson, to a torn ACL. OREGON @ No. 12 OHIO STATE Both Oregon and Ohio State are 4-4 in their last eight games vs. Power 4 opponents. No. 9 BYU @ No. 3 UTAH Underdogs in the Holy War have done quite well lately, winning five of the last 13 and covering 10 of the last 13. No. 1 MIAMI @ No. 11 NOTRE DAME Since 1978, only once has No. 1 been an underdog of at least six points in the regular season — back in 2014, when No. 1 Miss State lost 25-20 as a 9.5-point ‘dog at No. 4 Alabama. Both Miami and Notre Dame have committed only two turnovers vs. Power 4 opponents (fewest in the nation). Notre Dame has been flagged just 20 times in six games vs. P4 opponents (3.3 PG). That and the 31 penalty YPG are the fewest for any P4 team vs. another P4 team. Miami has converted 53.9% of its third downs vs. P4 opponents (leads nation). No. 19 IOWA @ NORTHWESTERN Dating back to 2020, Iowa has been involved in 31 regular-season games with a spread between -4/+4. The Hawkeyes are 25-6 in those games. No. 8 UCLA @ MINNESOTA UCLA is in the danger zone this week — an AP top-seven team on the road vs. an unranked team laying single digits. In six games this year, those teams are 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS. In six games against Power 4 teams, UCLA has been the recipient of 21 turnovers, resulting in 80 points. UCLA has thrown seven TDs and six INTs this season. The only Power 4 team with a worse ratio is Clemson (four TDs, seven INTs). Minnesota is averaging 4.3 YPP vs. Power 4 teams this season. Only Michigan State is worse.  The Gophers have scored eight offensive TDs this season vs. P4 teams, the fewest among any P4 team. No. 7 TEXAS @ No. 18 MISSOURI Texas has gone three-and-out on 42.7% of its drives vs. P4 opponents. Only Minnesota is worse among P4 teams. NEBRASKA @ ILLINOIS Nebraska trailed for a total of 8:41 and led for 116:10 during its three-game losing streak. Next to Impossible stuff. No. 6 KENTUCKY @ No. 13 TENNESSEE Tennessee is No. 16 in the AP Poll. AP No. 16 has lost each of its last six games. Tennessee has recorded a sack on 14.4% of its opponent dropbacks in P4 games, tops in the country. There have been 33 games this season in which a Power 4 underdog of at least 6.5 points won outright. Kentucky is responsible for three of them. Minnesota is the only other P4 team with at least three wins as a ‘dog of at least 6.5 points. Read More

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